2022 NCAA Tournament Predictive Model – Post Round 1 Update – 3/19/22

PositionTeamScoreChange Since Tourney Start
1Gonzaga3.1653340
2Houston2.736411
3Tennessee2.705571
4Arizona2.621519-2
5Auburn2.4448150
6Baylor2.2640570
7Texas Tech2.1102554
8Kansas2.0240012
9Kentucky1.962553-2
10Iowa1.905239-2
11LSU1.867348-2
12Texas1.8355511
13UCLA1.719597-1
14St Johns1.6385830
15Memphis1.6284070
16Duke1.6175810
17St Marys1.6145551
18Oklahoma1.607606-1
19Villanova1.4040711
20Connecticut1.379594-1
21Alabama1.3274440
22VCU1.2853693
23Miami (FL)1.2706976
24Oklahoma St1.2506854
25Iowa State1.2439716
26Illinois1.236449-4
27VA Tech1.212271-1
28Florida1.197859-4
29Loyola-Chi1.192084-6
30Michigan1.115312
31Indiana1.08854-4
32Purdue1.0876992
33Xavier1.0782570
34Arkansas1.0501341
35San Francisco1.0399381
36Ohio State0.9982241
37Belmont0.9884382
38Marquette0.972785-8
39Michigan St0.947708-1
40Wake Forest0.8760120
41Florida St0.8407682
42Furman0.8328522
43Colorado St0.821233-2
44Rutgers0.7778381
45Miss State0.772004-3
46Virginia0.7579112
47Texas A&M0.712898-1
48San Diego St0.704381-1
49Richmond0.7006040
50UAB0.6723550
51TX Christian0.6591035
52W Virginia0.6473041
53Vermont0.640554-2
54N Carolina0.6287951
55Clemson0.609045-1
56Utah State0.583477-4
57Towson0.5373953
58Wisconsin0.534130
59Vanderbilt0.521460
60Wash State0.521059-3
61Dayton0.512247
62Iona0.5114113
63Davidson0.500163
64Colorado0.498564-3
65Boise State0.49779-3
66Northwestern0.4785121
67Notre Dame0.4768082
68Santa Clara0.466485-5
69Oregon0.4563171
70Seton Hall0.426207-6
71Murray St0.4247483
72Kansas St0.4233281
73Providence0.416646-2
74North Texas0.408917-2
75St Bonavent0.4031425
76S Carolina0.3789192
77Bradley0.374038-1
78Creighton0.3701291
79Saint Louis0.363762-4
80S Methodist0.355865-3
81Wichita St0.3555220
82Central FL0.3515711
83S Dakota St0.338797-1
84Drake0.3360240
85Tulane0.3305070
86Missouri St0.3151761
87Middle Tenn0.3131961
88USC0.2998-2
89Maryland0.2932840
90Arizona St0.2862580
91Nebraska0.2696530
92Boston Col0.2598014
93Rhode Island0.2561131
94Geo Mason0.2519843
95Stanford0.251283-2
96Fresno St0.2503643
97Cleveland St0.2493541
98DePaul0.246638-6
99Chattanooga0.240439-4
100Hofstra0.2354530
101Missouri0.2343880
102Wofford0.2139091
103Fla Atlantic0.209064-1
104Syracuse0.2071481
105Mississippi0.203194-1
106Nevada0.1966780
107Washington0.1964531
108Ohio0.195634-1
109Col Charlestn0.1915711
110BYU0.1901095
111Minnesota0.189997-2
112Delaware0.1898061
113Ste F Austin0.188698-1
114N Iowa0.1859083
115St Peters0.184881
116NC State0.178768-2
117Montana St0.174066-6
118Abl Christian0.145272
119Princeton0.1422960
120Wagner0.1421631
121W Kentucky0.1395841
122Buffalo0.1343182
123Charlotte0.1310783
124UNLV0.1308311
125Toledo0.130178-7
126Cincinnati0.1289571
127Wright State0.12714910
128Colgate0.126141-5
129Tulsa0.1202251
130Penn State0.11817-1
131Wyoming0.115399-3
132Akron0.11453-1
133GA Tech0.1136943
134UCSB0.113473-2
135Winthrop0.112782-2
136S Illinois0.111698-1
137N Mex State0.1116113
138LA Tech0.1073730
139Louisville0.1068240
140Kent State0.106599-6
141California0.0989460
142Cornell0.0960310
143Morehead St0.0953620
144Illinois St0.0885210
145Temple0.0857730
146Southern0.084360
147TX El Paso0.0834010
148U Mass0.0831091
149Weber State0.079991-1
150Grd Canyon0.07993
151Oregon St0.079708-1
152Monmouth0.0787254
153NC-Wilmgton0.078621-1
154Utah0.0781170
155Air Force0.077468-4
156IPFW0.077171-1
157Texas State0.0725260
158Fordham0.0703761
159Arkansas St0.0682322
160Liberty0.0671612
161Yale0.0665972
162Georgetown0.065336-2
163E Carolina0.0638791
164Drexel0.061652
165Butler0.0591180
166Seattle0.0589012
167Lg Beach St0.058439-9
168Brown0.05832-1
169U Penn0.0555692
170Dartmouth0.0549442
171LA Lafayette0.054852
172Prairie View0.054812
173Mercer0.0539762
174New Mexico0.053539-5
175Longwood0.053288-5
176Marshall0.0527180
177Geo Wshgtn0.051971
178Pittsburgh0.0511622
179Utah Val St0.050917-2
180NC-Grnsboro0.050152-1
181E Washingtn0.0489415
182N Kentucky0.048926-1
183S Alabama0.047574-1
184LIU0.0471671
185Loyola-MD0.0469972
186Georgia St0.046317-3
187S Utah0.0461922
188Fla Gulf Cst0.0455435
189Gard-Webb0.043702-1
190Jksnville St0.041485-6
191Georgia0.040479-1
192IL-Chicago0.0402490
193South Dakota0.039745-2
194Loyola Mymt0.038883
195Navy0.0388763
196SE Missouri0.038742-1
197N Colorado0.038361-1
198CS Fullerton0.038177-4
199Old Dominion0.0368661
200Sam Hous St0.0367241
201Portland St0.036661-2
202UMKC0.0360040
203Oakland0.0351281
204Hartford0.034821-1
205Mt St Marys0.0342880
206Bellarmine0.0339840
207Valparaiso0.0329480
208Portland0.0321490
209E Tenn St0.0315762
210Siena0.0314812
211Campbell0.031051-2
212Quinnipiac0.0308682
213Boston U0.0304550
214Merrimack0.030242-4
215Fairfield0.0300231
216Hawaii0.029398-1
217James Mad0.0280372
218Troy0.027987-1
219VA Military0.0276156
220Tarleton State0.0274336
221UC Irvine0.027378-1
222St Josephs0.0273440
223Detroit0.027302-5
224La Salle0.027114-1
225Northeastrn0.027083-1
226Howard0.027035-5
227Montana0.0263280
228SE Louisiana0.0256273
229W Illinois0.0253960
230TX Southern0.02462-2
231Ball State0.023543-1
232Samford0.0224540
233Lafayette0.0220440
234Niagara0.0217483
235UC Riverside0.02149-1
236E Kentucky0.021478-1
237Indiana St0.0210333
238N Illinois0.020834-2
239Oral Roberts0.0207120
240Manhattan0.0206234
241Miami (OH)0.0204750
242Mass Lowell0.0204440
243TX-Arlington0.020368-5
244Harvard0.020346-1
245Denver0.0200770
246Kennesaw St0.0200450
247Stony Brook0.0193291
248Pacific0.0191981
249Lehigh0.01893-2
250Elon0.0188710
251Rider0.0184161
252UC Davis0.018363-1
253Duquesne0.0180970
254S Florida0.0180210
255Nicholls St0.0178660
256TX A&M-CC0.0175372
257N Hampshire0.017491-1
258Maryland BC0.017244-1
259SC Upstate0.0172216
260Pepperdine0.0167111
261Florida Intl0.016546-2
262NC-Asheville0.016396-2
263Presbyterian0.015814-1
264Alcorn State0.015254
265Rice0.015104-1
266N Dakota St0.015048-3
267Alabama St0.014266-1
268Bowling Grn0.013864-1
269Evansville0.0137490
270Marist0.0135181
271LA Monroe0.013247-1
272UC San Diego0.0131331
273Jackson St0.0130941
274Jacksonville0.0129163
275Albany0.01286-3
276TN State0.012728-1
277Coastal Car0.0124736
278Coppin State0.012425-2
279Radford0.012346-1
280Central Mich0.011693-1
281Youngs St0.0116830
282Rob Morris0.0115072
283Canisius0.0114497
284GA Southern0.011433-2
285Austin Peay0.0112683
286Bryant0.0111410
287Cal Baptist0.0111150
288App State0.011097-3
289American0.0109630
290High Point0.010771
291Norfolk St0.010399-11
292SIU Edward0.0103631
293CS Bakersfld0.010322-1
294New Orleans0.0102972
295TN Tech0.010122-1
296E Michigan0.009865-1
297Binghamton0.0092090
298San Jose St0.0086520
299Army0.0084630
300Cal Poly0.0072391
301NC A&T0.0070881
302Maryland ES0.006644-2
303Morgan St0.0065580
304San Diego0.0065580
305AR Lit Rock0.0063060
306WI-Grn Bay0.0061740
307NW State0.0061530
308Wm & Mary0.006020
309St. Thomas (MN)0.0059490
310Sac State0.0057090
311Central Ark0.005580
312Citadel0.0055630
313Grambling St0.0054441
314Houston Bap0.0053262
315St Fran (NY)0.005298-2
316NC Central0.005286-1
317Lipscomb0.005171
318TN Martin0.005062-1
319Beth-Cook0.0049781
320St Fran (PA)0.0049-1
321Maine0.0046590
322N Florida0.004580
323TX-Pan Am0.0043050
324Bucknell0.004290
325Central Conn0.0042850
326Idaho0.0041080
327Dixie State0.0039850
328Florida A&M0.0039480
329Idaho State0.0036680
330Cal St Nrdge0.0036310
331Chicago St0.0034973
332Sacred Hrt0.003472-1
333McNeese St0.0034593
334F Dickinson0.003457-2
335Stetson0.00344-2
336Neb Omaha0.003383-1
337W Michigan0.0029440
338N Arizona0.0028380
339WI-Milwkee0.0027780
340NJIT0.0027090
341W Carolina0.0026470
342Miss Val St0.0022360
343Columbia0.0020691
344Ark Pine Bl0.00204-1
345Incar Word0.0017921
346Alab A&M0.001777-1
347S Car State0.0015670
348N Alabama0.0015250
349S Mississippi0.0015230
350Holy Cross0.0014750
351Hampton0.0013840
352Charl South0.0011580
353Lamar0.00110
354TX-San Ant0.0010030
355IUPUI0.0009870
356North Dakota0.0008530
357E Illinois0.0005450
358Delaware St0.0004550

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