2021-2022 NCAA Tourney Predictive Model - 01/30/2022 Update

Position	Team	Score	1 Wk Change
1	Gonzaga	3.096689	2
2	Auburn	3.091105	-1
3	Baylor	2.673633	2
4	Houston	2.62084	0
5	Arizona	2.58295	-3
6	Tennessee	2.545381	0
7	Kentucky	2.225037	1
8	Kansas	2.118793	-1
9	Duke	1.941182	0
10	Iowa	1.931191	1
11	LSU	1.893577	-1
12	Purdue	1.860121	5
13	Texas	1.794799	0
14	Villanova	1.672866	0
15	Alabama	1.66544	1
16	UCLA	1.597438	13
17	Florida	1.596229	-5
18	Connecticut	1.588537	0
19	Oklahoma	1.561707	2
20	Texas Tech	1.544424	5
21	Ohio State	1.454667	-6
22	Marquette	1.402049	5
23	Illinois	1.362478	-4
24	St Johns	1.343527	11
25	Iowa State	1.325551	1
26	Oklahoma St	1.303732	-2
27	Michigan St	1.29882	3
28	Florida St	1.283601	-8
29	Belmont	1.279495	4
30	Xavier	1.26022	-8
31	St Marys	1.212082	1
32	Miss State	1.211189	-9
33	Indiana	1.184091	1
34	Memphis	1.168565	-6
35	VCU	1.130192	1
36	Loyola-Chi	1.041193	-5
37	Arkansas	0.934039	2
38	VA Tech	0.875474	5
39	San Fransco	0.860418	-1
40	Colorado St	0.847874	-3
41	Clemson	0.828606	0
42	Miami (FL)	0.810232	0
43	Richmond	0.770915	-3
44	Furman	0.746907	9
45	Wake Forest	0.743228	-1
46	Michigan	0.730751	0
47	Utah State	0.68469	16
48	Iona	0.673324	0
49	Northwestern	0.645295	0
50	Wisconsin	0.642831	-3
51	Virginia	0.62782	0
52	San Diego St	0.545681	7
53	Oregon	0.534162	19
54	Geo Mason	0.529799	7
55	Rhode Island	0.528482	-10
56	Wash State	0.527751	0
57	UAB	0.503704	-3
58	Texas A&M	0.489511	-3
59	W Virginia	0.480512	3
60	Central FL	0.467375	-3
61	Davidson	0.463375	-11
62	Vermont	0.462945	-4
63	USC	0.443237	-3
64	North Texas	0.437806	4
65	Rutgers	0.431448	0
66	Boise State	0.405394	14
67	Notre Dame	0.395711	10
68	Seton Hall	0.382412	-16
69	Santa Clara	0.376146	16
70	Wichita St	0.372022	9
71	Dayton	0.360464	-4
72	Saint Louis	0.359	16
73	Murray St	0.35797	3
74	Wagner	0.357376	4
75	Towson	0.355405	-1
76	Fresno St	0.353735	-6
77	Syracuse	0.349293	4
78	Providence	0.346394	-3
79	Colorado	0.337011	7
80	Bradley	0.334338	7
81	Stanford	0.329339	-10
82	S Methodist	0.329258	0
83	Kansas St	0.328421	-17
84	Chattanooga	0.324769	-1
85	TX Christian	0.315749	-16
86	Missouri St	0.315306	-13
87	Creighton	0.304858	-23
88	N Carolina	0.296263	4
89	S Carolina	0.288781	4
90	NC State	0.261187	-6
91	Wofford	0.25627	6
92	Ohio	0.255432	2
93	Vanderbilt	0.248658	-4
94	Tulane	0.231797	18
95	S Dakota St	0.222954	5
96	Middle Tenn	0.206611	19
97	BYU	0.201943	-7
98	Tulsa	0.199882	1
99	Cleveland St	0.1961	5
100	DePaul	0.194487	-2
101	Minnesota	0.192724	-10
102	Air Force	0.192495	1
103	Cincinnati	0.191702	-7
104	Hofstra	0.181909	-9
105	Washington	0.174228	3
106	Drake	0.172271	0
107	Delaware	0.154507	10
108	St Bonavent	0.151557	-3
109	Col Charlestn	0.150828	2
110	Southern	0.145087	10
111	Nebraska	0.14383	-10
112	Toledo	0.142253	15
113	Oregon St	0.140539	-3
114	Mississippi	0.140099	7
115	Monmouth	0.133588	-6
116	Louisville	0.128078	-14
117	Wyoming	0.123109	-3
118	Maryland	0.122779	-11
119	Fla Atlantic	0.113967	10
120	Charlotte	0.113183	-7
121	Fordham	0.113019	11
122	California	0.112006	4
123	W Kentucky	0.111299	0
124	Colgate	0.110285	0
125	Penn State	0.108912	-9
126	Nevada	0.100928	-4
127	UNLV	0.096044	15
128	Missouri	0.095239	5
129	LA Tech	0.094236	1
130	Princeton	0.094203	4
131	Arizona St	0.088638	6
132	Weber State	0.088071	38
133	Howard	0.087585	18
134	New Mexico	0.087569	6
135	Montana St	0.087305	-17
136	Seattle	0.086741	5
137	Prairie View	0.086278	2
138	Boston Col	0.084358	-19
139	St Peters	0.083918	18
140	Illinois St	0.083453	-4
141	Drexel	0.082578	8
142	GA Tech	0.082397	-7
143	N Iowa	0.081923	2
144	Buffalo	0.080314	-16
145	Temple	0.080278	2
146	Ste F Austin	0.076046	2
147	Winthrop	0.074758	5
148	Brown	0.073963	-4
149	U Mass	0.072545	-24
150	N Mex State	0.069823	6
151	Utah Val St	0.068719	11
152	Utah	0.068618	7
153	Grd Canyon	0.068049	-10
154	Liberty	0.067126	-4
155	Morehead St	0.064658	-17
156	Georgetown	0.064086	5
157	TX El Paso	0.063238	15
158	Navy	0.063107	-3
159	S Illinois	0.062288	-28
160	U Penn	0.060581	0
161	E Carolina	0.059293	-7
162	Jksnville St	0.056217	1
163	Oakland	0.051509	-17
164	S Alabama	0.050763	4
165	Marshall	0.048724	11
166	Abl Christian	0.04872	12
167	LA Lafayette	0.048391	4
168	Yale	0.048253	5
169	Loyola Mymt	0.047566	-16
170	IPFW	0.046535	11
171	St Josephs	0.045735	16
172	Arkansas St	0.044954	3
173	Valparaiso	0.044612	-15
174	Cornell	0.043606	3
175	Kent State	0.042473	7
176	Wright State	0.041926	-7
177	Loyola-MD	0.041772	-12
178	Butler	0.041727	31
179	LIU	0.041025	-15
180	Campbell	0.041016	22
181	IL-Chicago	0.039132	4
182	Tarleton State	0.038901	6
183	Akron	0.037916	0
184	Siena	0.037914	-17
185	E Washingtn	0.037822	12
186	Lg Beach St	0.037552	8
187	NC-Wilmgton	0.037365	42
188	Texas State	0.036549	-9
189	Old Dominion	0.035945	-5
190	Boston U	0.035548	0
191	Quinnipiac	0.034934	10
192	James Mad	0.034419	-18
193	UCSB	0.033989	33
194	Indiana St	0.033989	-1
195	Fairfield	0.033744	-4
196	Gard-Webb	0.033674	11
197	Stony Brook	0.032801	18
198	Dartmouth	0.031384	5
199	Geo Wshgtn	0.031351	-13
200	Hartford	0.031226	10
201	La Salle	0.030825	12
202	Alcorn State	0.030504	2
203	W Illinois	0.030215	-5
204	Detroit	0.030119	-9
205	Northeastrn	0.029909	-16
206	Mt St Marys	0.029811	19
207	Mercer	0.028951	-41
208	NC-Grnsboro	0.028557	-3
209	Georgia	0.027694	22
210	Longwood	0.027409	25
211	E Tenn St	0.02739	8
212	Pittsburgh	0.027252	8
213	Oral Roberts	0.026491	-5
214	Hawaii	0.026268	-2
215	Denver	0.02539	-4
216	Montana	0.025197	1
217	E Kentucky	0.024485	11
218	N Colorado	0.024433	-4
219	Fla Gulf Cst	0.024427	-39
220	Elon	0.022457	3
221	TX Southern	0.022342	-29
222	N Illinois	0.022153	-23
223	Duquesne	0.021885	-23
224	Jackson St	0.021772	-28
225	E Michigan	0.02161	-7
226	Harvard	0.020916	-10
227	Ball State	0.020644	28
228	Bellarmine	0.020404	33
229	UC Irvine	0.020378	14
230	Bowling Grn	0.020305	3
231	Merrimack	0.020192	-1
232	Sam Hous St	0.01991	5
233	Niagara	0.019157	-12
234	CS Fullerton	0.019013	2
235	S Utah	0.018985	11
236	Portland	0.018532	3
237	S Florida	0.017518	-31
238	Rice	0.017446	-14
239	South Dakota	0.017268	-7
240	SE Missouri	0.016972	5
241	Alabama St	0.016798	-1
242	Marist	0.016212	-15
243	VA Military	0.015694	1
244	TX A&M-CC	0.015432	7
245	Pepperdine	0.015159	4
246	Lehigh	0.015069	1
247	TN Tech	0.014803	-6
248	Austin Peay	0.014763	8
249	SC Upstate	0.014641	21
250	Troy	0.014639	10
251	Florida Intl	0.014595	-13
252	Manhattan	0.014331	-30
253	Coppin State	0.014129	0
254	Pacific	0.013639	14
255	TX-Arlington	0.013435	8
256	Albany	0.013367	-2
257	Miami (OH)	0.012716	7
258	UC Riverside	0.01239	4
259	Maryland BC	0.01229	-1
260	SIU Edward	0.011926	-12
261	UC Davis	0.011744	-27
262	Rob Morris	0.011686	3
263	Kennesaw St	0.011395	-11
264	Georgia St	0.011082	42
265	Evansville	0.010523	28
266	Nicholls St	0.010504	11
267	GA Southern	0.010495	-1
268	SE Louisiana	0.010456	-1
269	High Point	0.010377	-27
270	Samford	0.010347	16
271	Radford	0.010131	-21
272	N Kentucky	0.010048	16
273	Lafayette	0.009885	17
274	UC San Diego	0.009787	-3
275	LA Monroe	0.009781	-18
276	Portland St	0.009424	38
277	Youngs St	0.009195	8
278	App State	0.009122	-4
279	Binghamton	0.009079	-6
280	Central Mich	0.008743	16
281	San Diego	0.008479	18
282	Canisius	0.008118	7
283	New Orleans	0.008093	1
284	Bryant	0.008054	-2
285	Wm & Mary	0.007965	-7
286	Presbyterian	0.007558	11
287	Army	0.007432	-15
288	NC-Asheville	0.007423	-13
289	CS Bakersfld	0.007375	13
290	UMKC	0.00735	-21
291	St. Thomas (MN)	0.00719	-32
292	American	0.007117	-13
293	Cal Baptist	0.006991	2
294	St Fran (PA)	0.006984	-11
295	Mass Lowell	0.006981	-4
296	N Hampshire	0.006932	-15
297	Central Conn	0.006869	-3
298	TN State	0.006473	-22
299	Rider	0.006466	-12
300	Jacksonville	0.006058	7
301	St Fran (NY)	0.005952	4
302	TX-Pan Am	0.005579	2
303	NC Central	0.005409	18
304	Norfolk St	0.005409	4
305	TN Martin	0.005403	-13
306	Cal Poly	0.005324	3
307	San Jose St	0.004994	-6
308	WI-Milwkee	0.004972	-28
309	N Dakota St	0.004938	15
310	Coastal Car	0.004899	-7
311	WI-Grn Bay	0.004818	-13
312	NC A&T	0.004775	-12
313	NJIT	0.00467	-3
314	Grambling St	0.004386	-3
315	AR Lit Rock	0.003558	2
316	Florida A&M	0.003528	6
317	Dixie State	0.003496	-4
318	Idaho	0.003495	9
319	Beth-Cook	0.003306	0
320	N Florida	0.00315	3
321	Chicago St	0.003076	-1
322	Bucknell	0.003022	-4
323	NW State	0.002928	15
324	Maryland ES	0.002839	8
325	W Michigan	0.002764	12
326	Citadel	0.002664	-11
327	N Arizona	0.00265	-2
328	Central Ark	0.00262	-16
329	Sac State	0.0025	6
330	F Dickinson	0.002405	-14
331	Lipscomb	0.002335	5
332	McNeese St	0.002313	-3
333	Neb Omaha	0.002247	0
334	Sacred Hrt	0.002235	-8
335	Columbia	0.002135	-4
336	W Carolina	0.002054	-8
337	Alab A&M	0.001915	-7
338	N Alabama	0.001899	-4
339	Stetson	0.001634	3
340	Cal St Nrdge	0.001544	0
341	Miss Val St	0.001502	-2
342	Maine	0.001408	11
343	S Mississippi	0.001376	2
344	Lamar	0.001167	0
345	Incar Word	0.001166	3
346	Houston Bap	0.000972	3
347	Charl South	0.000891	5
348	Idaho State	0.000881	-2
349	Ark Pine Bl	0.000848	1
350	Morgan St	0.000808	1
351	Holy Cross	0.000798	-4
352	S Car State	0.00078	-11
353	IUPUI	0.000671	1
354	Hampton	0.000607	-11
355	North Dakota	0.000472	0
356	E Illinois	0.000326	0
357	TX-San Ant	0.000228	0
358	Delaware St	3.61E-05	0

1 thought on “2021-2022 NCAA Tourney Predictive Model – 01/30/2022 Update”

B A

January 31, 2022 at 6:26 pm

Thank you for posting this information.

Does your model allow you to run single performances?

E.g. can you take one game and generate a “score” that would tell you how that caliber of performance would fare in the tourney?

1 thought on “2021-2022 NCAA Tourney Predictive Model – 01/30/2022 Update”

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