2021-2022 NCAA Tournament Predictive Model – 3/14/22 – Final Update Pre-Tournament

PositionTeamScore
1Gonzaga3.204329
2Arizona2.690714
3Houston2.688599
4Tennessee2.583088
5Auburn2.472378
6Baylor2.127627
7Kentucky2.092494
8Iowa2.017429
9LSU1.994954
10Kansas1.993454
11Texas Tech1.945283
12UCLA1.714458
13Texas1.696476
14St Johns1.672674
15Memphis1.607828
16Duke1.591361
17Oklahoma1.526522
18St Marys1.503307
19Connecticut1.438961
20Villanova1.402713
21Alabama1.34465
22Illinois1.291845
23Loyola-Chi1.253462
24Florida1.237107
25VCU1.2325
26VA Tech1.231071
27Indiana1.22281
28Oklahoma St1.206455
29Miami (FL)1.187694
30Marquette1.162546
31Iowa State1.144527
32Michigan1.112184
33Xavier1.098126
34Purdue1.092274
35Arkansas1.060516
36San Francisco1.058736
37Ohio State1.045698
38Michigan St0.972276
39Belmont0.971753
40Wake Forest0.889214
41Colorado St0.844132
42Miss State0.831085
43Florida St0.828775
44Furman0.820924
45Rutgers0.809679
46Texas A&M0.751818
47San Diego St0.737693
48Virginia0.735175
49Richmond0.69918
50UAB0.681077
51Vermont0.661575
52Utah State0.637343
53W Virginia0.626953
54Clemson0.599215
55N Carolina0.573527
56TX Christian0.565342
57Wash State0.553956
58Wisconsin0.542933
59Vanderbilt0.53641
60Towson0.535711
61Colorado0.528025
62Boise State0.518488
63Santa Clara0.505818
64Seton Hall0.504801
65Iona0.493792
66Davidson0.487525
67Northwestern0.478512
68Dayton0.469825
69Notre Dame0.451799
70Oregon0.444879
71Providence0.431226
72North Texas0.428336
73Kansas St0.400837
74Murray St0.397371
75Saint Louis0.391493
76Bradley0.381052
77S Methodist0.379726
78S Carolina0.378919
79Creighton0.371027
80St Bonavent0.362808
81Wichita St0.355522
82S Dakota St0.349228
83Central FL0.344987
84Drake0.336024
85Tulane0.330507
86USC0.324438
87Missouri St0.317502
88Middle Tenn0.313196
89Maryland0.299062
90Arizona St0.286258
91Nebraska0.275044
92DePaul0.256727
93Stanford0.256364
94Rhode Island0.251036
95Chattanooga0.249998
96Boston Col0.24961
97Geo Mason0.246976
98Cleveland St0.244028
99Fresno St0.237169
100Hofstra0.235453
101Missouri0.234388
102Fla Atlantic0.213403
103Wofford0.20956
104Mississippi0.207428
105Syracuse0.202919
106Nevada0.200792
107Ohio0.199729
108Washington0.196453
109Minnesota0.193988
110Col Charlestn0.191571
111Montana St0.188015
112Ste F Austin0.184803
113Delaware0.182314
114NC State0.171414
115BYU0.166227
116St Peters0.160595
117N Iowa0.160576
118Toledo0.154308
119Princeton0.150226
120Abl Christian0.14527
121Wagner0.145239
122W Kentucky0.14261
123Colgate0.140806
124Buffalo0.134318
125UNLV0.133682
126Charlotte0.131078
127Cincinnati0.128957
128Wyoming0.127726
129Penn State0.120765
130Tulsa0.120225
131Akron0.117067
132UCSB0.113473
133Winthrop0.112782
134Kent State0.112672
135S Illinois0.111698
136GA Tech0.11124
137Wright State0.109945
138LA Tech0.109747
139Louisville0.104509
140N Mex State0.102024
141California0.101145
142Cornell0.09817
143Morehead St0.095362
144Illinois St0.088521
145Temple0.085773
146Southern0.08436
147TX El Paso0.083401
148Weber State0.081791
149U Mass0.081282
150Oregon St0.079708
151Air Force0.079213
152NC-Wilmgton0.078621
153Grd Canyon0.078141
154Utah0.078117
155IPFW0.077171
156Monmouth0.07699
157Texas State0.073409
158Lg Beach St0.069745
159Fordham0.068818
160Georgetown0.068334
161Arkansas St0.068232
162Liberty0.067161
163Yale0.066138
164E Carolina0.062459
165Butler0.061842
166Drexel0.06165
167Brown0.05832
168Seattle0.057587
169New Mexico0.056015
170Longwood0.055851
171U Penn0.055569
172Dartmouth0.054944
173LA Lafayette0.05485
174Prairie View0.053585
175Mercer0.052768
176Marshall0.052718
177Utah Val St0.050917
178Geo Wshgtn0.050806
179NC-Grnsboro0.050152
180Pittsburgh0.050016
181N Kentucky0.048926
182S Alabama0.048458
183Georgia St0.048014
184Jksnville St0.047212
185LIU0.047167
186E Washingtn0.047159
187Loyola-MD0.045942
188Gard-Webb0.043702
189S Utah0.042582
190Georgia0.041412
191South Dakota0.040661
192IL-Chicago0.040249
193Fla Gulf Cst0.040057
194CS Fullerton0.039707
195SE Missouri0.038742
196N Colorado0.038361
197Loyola Mymt0.038003
198Navy0.037999
199Portland St0.037508
200Old Dominion0.036866
201Sam Hous St0.036724
202UMKC0.036004
203Hartford0.034821
204Oakland0.034333
205Mt St Marys0.034288
206Bellarmine0.033215
207Valparaiso0.032948
208Portland0.032149
209Campbell0.031051
210Merrimack0.030944
211E Tenn St0.03086
212Siena0.030768
213Boston U0.030455
214Quinnipiac0.030168
215Hawaii0.029398
216Fairfield0.029342
217Troy0.028637
218Detroit0.028495
219James Mad0.028037
220UC Irvine0.028014
221Howard0.027664
222St Josephs0.027344
223La Salle0.027114
224Northeastrn0.027083
225VA Military0.026987
226Tarleton State0.02681
227Montana0.026328
228TX Southern0.02628
229W Illinois0.025987
230Ball State0.024092
231SE Louisiana0.023837
232Samford0.022454
233Lafayette0.022044
234UC Riverside0.02149
235E Kentucky0.021478
236N Illinois0.021321
237Niagara0.021252
238TX-Arlington0.020843
239Oral Roberts0.020712
240Indiana St0.020554
241Miami (OH)0.020475
242Mass Lowell0.020444
243Harvard0.020346
244Manhattan0.020153
245Denver0.020077
246Kennesaw St0.019588
247Lehigh0.019373
248Stony Brook0.019329
249Pacific0.019198
250Elon0.018871
251UC Davis0.018793
252Rider0.017995
253Duquesne0.017684
254S Florida0.017609
255Nicholls St0.017508
256N Hampshire0.017491
257Maryland BC0.017244
258TX A&M-CC0.016582
259Florida Intl0.016546
260NC-Asheville0.016396
261Pepperdine0.016328
262Presbyterian0.015452
263N Dakota St0.015401
264Rice0.015104
265SC Upstate0.01402
266Alabama St0.013939
267Bowling Grn0.013864
268Alcorn State0.013843
269Evansville0.013749
270LA Monroe0.013247
271Marist0.013208
272Albany0.013162
273UC San Diego0.013133
274Jackson St0.013094
275TN State0.012877
276Coppin State0.012716
277Jacksonville0.01262
278Radford0.012063
279Central Mich0.011967
280Norfolk St0.011938
281Youngs St0.011763
282GA Southern0.011702
283Coastal Car0.011653
284Rob Morris0.011507
285App State0.011468
286Bryant0.01127
287Cal Baptist0.011115
288Austin Peay0.011009
289American0.010963
290Canisius0.010929
291High Point0.01077
292CS Bakersfld0.010564
293SIU Edward0.010363
294TN Tech0.010122
295E Michigan0.010097
296New Orleans0.010061
297Binghamton0.009209
298San Jose St0.008855
299Army0.008463
300Maryland ES0.007672
301Cal Poly0.007409
302NC A&T0.007088
303Morgan St0.006651
304San Diego0.006558
305AR Lit Rock0.006454
306WI-Grn Bay0.006174
307NW State0.006153
308Wm & Mary0.00602
309St. Thomas (MN)0.005949
310Sac State0.005843
311Central Ark0.00558
312Citadel0.005435
313St Fran (NY)0.005423
314Grambling St0.005318
315NC Central0.005286
316Houston Bap0.005083
317TN Martin0.005062
318Lipscomb0.005051
319St Fran (PA)0.005016
320Beth-Cook0.004978
321Maine0.004659
322N Florida0.00458
323TX-Pan Am0.004305
324Bucknell0.00429
325Central Conn0.004285
326Idaho0.004205
327Dixie State0.003985
328Florida A&M0.003857
329Idaho State0.003755
330Cal St Nrdge0.003631
331Sacred Hrt0.003554
332F Dickinson0.003539
333Stetson0.00344
334Chicago St0.003416
335Neb Omaha0.003383
336McNeese St0.00338
337W Michigan0.002944
338N Arizona0.002905
339WI-Milwkee0.002778
340NJIT0.002709
341W Carolina0.002586
342Miss Val St0.002195
343Ark Pine Bl0.002079
344Columbia0.002069
345Alab A&M0.001758
346Incar Word0.00171
347S Car State0.001604
348N Alabama0.001525
349S Mississippi0.001523
350Holy Cross0.001475
351Hampton0.001384
352Charl South0.001158
353Lamar0.0011
354TX-San Ant0.001026
355IUPUI0.000987
356North Dakota0.000873
357E Illinois0.000545
358Delaware St0.000465

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